Introduction

\Today (July 6, 2026), the Tokyo stock market showed a gradual upward trend. The Nikkei Stock Average closed at 71,458 yen, representing an increase of +3.2% from the previous day’s close. This movement can be interpreted as a positive signal across the entire market, incorporating AI and semiconductor trends, following the long-term trend where the Nikkei average rose by approximately 20,000 yen or 39% from ¥50,339 (at the end of last year) to the end of June.

Open-to-Close Movement and Factor Analysis

Movement from Open (71,045 yen)

\The opening price today was 71,045 yen, starting the day with a +0.3% increase from the previous closing price. This movement reflects increasing investment demand for improving productivity in Japanese companies, even as AI and semiconductor stocks declined in the US market last weekend.

Development to Close (71,458 yen)

The closing price showed a steady performance of **+3.2%**. Buying pressure, particularly centered on AI-related stocks during the afternoon session, boosted the overall rise in the Nikkei average. This suggests that market recognition anticipates long-term growth potential in the AI industry, despite reports suggesting OpenAI is considering delaying its IPO until 2027.

Movement by Major Sectors

AI and Semiconductor Related

In Japan, a movement contrary to the decline seen in US AI and semiconductor stocks last weekend was observed. This can be explained by the synergistic effect of “Yen weakness benefit + AI investment demand.” Expectations are particularly high in data center and edge computing fields, leading related stocks to perform strongly.

Semiconductors and Electronic Components

The combination of benefiting from the weak yen in Japan-US semiconductor transactions and increased domestic corporate capital expenditure needs worked positively. Computational demand, which forms the foundation for AI models, remains at a high level, leading to strong buying based on expectations of productivity improvements in the semiconductor sector.

Services and SaaS

With the acceleration of digitalization, investment needs have also increased for SaaS (Software as a Service) related sectors aimed at improving business efficiency. Expectations were high in the field of business automation utilizing generative AI, which saw robust performance.

Overall Market Movement and Fund Flows

Foreign Institutional Investors’ Positions

While foreign institutional investors benefited from the Nikkei’s rise, they also showed caution regarding the decline in US AI stocks. However, recognition of the rising demand for capital investment aimed at improving Japanese corporate productivity is evident, leading to a shift toward long-term holdings.

Domestic Institutional Investors

Domestic institutional investors assessed the synergy between the weak yen benefit and AI investment demand, with buying concentrated particularly in dividend-preferred stocks related to semiconductors and electronic components.

Status of AI and Semiconductors

OpenAI Considering IPO Delay

Following reports that OpenAI is considering delaying its listing until 2027, the market demonstrated a focus on long-term growth potential rather than short-term concerns. This can be attributed to the broader market recognition of “investment in the entire AI industry.”

Impact of US Market

The decline in US semiconductor stocks was offset in the Japanese market by the combination of “Yen weakness benefit + domestic corporate capital expenditure demand.” In particular, benefiting from the weak yen in Japan-US semiconductor transactions, coupled with increased investment needs for improving domestic productivity, worked positively.

Future Outlook and Risk Factors

Positive Signals

• Increased investment demand in AI and semiconductors
• Benefits for export companies due to the weak yen
• High expectations for SaaS related sectors accompanying digitalization acceleration

Risk Factors

• Short-term concerns regarding OpenAI’s potential IPO delay
• Correlation risk with the movement of AI stocks in the US market
• Potential disparities in the pace of capital expenditure by domestic corporations

Conclusion

Today, the Nikkei average showed a gradual upward trend from an opening price of ¥71,045 to a closing price of ¥71,458. This can be interpreted as a positive signal across the entire market, building upon the long-term trend where the Nikkei average rose by approximately 20,000 yen or 39% from ¥50,339 (at the end of last year) to the end of June.

While remaining cautious about correlation risks with the US market in the short term, it is predicted that the Nikkei average will maintain a gradual upward trend due to the appreciation of the weak yen benefit and rising capital expenditure demand driven by digitalization acceleration in the long term.