June 25, 2026 Market Trends: Accelerated ‘Selection’ in AI Sector and Clear Risk-On Momentum

Today's stock market showed a pronounced "risk-on" posture. Major indices recorded significant gains, suggesting that investor risk appetite has increased substantially. However, upon closer inspection, it was clear that not all stocks rose; rather, the day demonstrated extremely strong "selectivity."

1. Stock Market: Significant Surge in Major Indices

In the domestic market, the Nikkei 225 saw an enormous increase of over ¥3,000 compared to the previous day, with closing prices surpassing the ¥72,000 level. The TOPIX also recorded a strong rally, indicating powerful buying pressure across the entire market.

The backdrop for this significant stock price rise is a powerful influx of capital into the technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks. In the foreign exchange market, the USD/JPY rate remained stable within a certain range. This allowed the inherent strength of the stock market itself to drive indices upward, rather than being swayed by rapid fluctuations in yen depreciation or appreciation.

2. The Emergence of ‘Polarization’ in the AI Sector

The most notable aspect of today’s market is the clear divergence—the “split between light and shadow”—within AI-related stocks, which are a growth sector.

Previously, the AI boom tended to lift all related stocks together. However, today’s movement was distinctly different from that trend.

Stocks showing explosive growth: Stocks related to semiconductors and hardware, which demonstrated incredible buying interest due to earnings forecasts significantly exceeding market expectations and displaying extremely strong momentum. These stocks led the indices, backed by strong earnings that validate demand for next-generation computing resources.
Stocks falling below expectations: Conversely, even within the same AI sector, stocks whose earnings outlook failed to meet market expectations faced severe selling pressure, leading to sharp declines in share prices.

This indicates that investor focus is shifting from “the theme of AI” itself, toward specific “companies that can actually generate profits and prove their growth.” The highly selective market, where capital concentrates in a few winning stocks, became even more evident.

3. Commodity Market: Capital Outflow from Risk-Off Assets

While the stock market leaned toward risk-on behavior (taking risks), a contrasting movement was observed in the commodity market.

First, crude oil prices saw a sharp decline to levels marking their lowest point since the start of geopolitical tensions, driven by expectations of easing global conflicts and concerns over decreasing demand.

Furthermore, gold (gold), a representative safe-haven asset, recorded a significant drop. Gold prices fell below important psychological thresholds, sinking to multi-month lows.

The simultaneous occurrence of capital flowing into the stock market alongside capital exiting “risk-off/inflation hedge assets” like gold and oil suggests that the current market momentum possesses an extremely strong risk-on nature.

Summary: Future Outlook

Today’s market was a day where the “selection of winners and losers,” driven by advancements in AI technology, became extremely clear.

Although the overall market is in an uptrend, investors are making highly critical judgments regarding corporate fundamentals, especially future earnings forecasts. Going forward, whether growth can continue with tangible profitability—rather than just thematic hype—will be the decisive factor determining which stocks rise and which fall.